A day later, and I my wishful theory is holding up. Russia's invasion seems to be dying by a hundred screw ups. If the interviews with captured soldiers are true it sounds like they weren't prepared, and, as I suspect, never told what they were about to do.

My hope is the talks today end in a temporary truce that could ultimately lead to full withdrawal. Russia never intended to take over Ukraine, only to replace its government. I don't see that happening. I think Putin grew overconfident because of Belarus, Crimea, etc.

But yeah, still, I have no idea.