A lot to think about. It's hard for me to think about what it means for Ukraine to join NATO or the EU when I can't see how Russia hasn't already lost the war disastrously. (As I point out in my pieces, that doesn't mean Ukraine wins--which I think we both agree?)

Russia builds and maintains a military to do two things 1) nuke or shoot down any U.S. fighters that dare to enter Russian territory; and 2) keep the Federation and those around it in line. Like many others, I'm shocked that Russia has failed so badly. Why?

I believe the problem is super simple. Corruption. Inability of the Russian government to accept criticism and fix problems. Basically, everything seems decided by a small group of now-old men. In well organized, motivated, self-critical circumstances, Russia should have been in out out of Ukraine by now. Putin may have been a good manager early on, but it seems he's horrible at it now.

It doesn't matter how many tanks you have. If your soldiers are more interested in getting paid to drive them, and short of that, strip out the copper and sell it, then you can't possibly win--definitely not against a highly motivated enemy fighting for their land.

I just can't see how the Russian government survives. Russia is sleepwalking into oblivion. Again, doesn't mean Ukraine wins. Or the U.S. Who knows what the devil-we-don't-know brings?

If that doesn't happen, then I need re-read what you wrote very closely. Because there's something I'm just not getting. NATO? EU? I can only see the relevance if Putin can survive and recover, which I don't believe he can.

At least we have well-defined positions. You believe Russia can win. I believe they're a dead regime walking.