A question is just how awful? Interviews I've watched of Russian soldiers shows a stark difference, at least to me, between the U.S. military and Russia's. If you believe there is equivalence here, I'd love to hear it.

I don't remember a single American soldier getting sent over a border without being told. Or being abandoned by a column, etc., etc. It's not just conscripts, I've watched Russian equivalents to Lieutenants say they weren't given maps or objectives, beyond follow the lead tank.

Ukraine's army was trained by NATO, but it's beyond that. They both have the same values, of independent thought and the right to know one's legal situation (on foreign land). Russia's military seems closer to a system of indentured servants.

That's what I find missing from the maps. The approach of both forces is completely different in attitude and social structure. Can a brute force artillery based army overrun a high-tech individualist army on foreign land? I don't see it. What I see is Russia losing badly and will continue to lose badly because it simply doesn't have a good system of military operations.

I'd love to hear more of your thoughts on that. And you have to make stronger predictions ;) Both those maps are misleading to me because I think Russian can't hold all the red area for more than a few months. It will expand a bit in the next few weeks, then it will continue to shrink and never go back.

I believe war will spread. There's no happy ending here. I think we agree on that.