A Quick Russia, U.S., Europe and Ukraine Review

Even I am beginning to buckle in my stead-fast belief that Russia never intended to invade Ukraine, won’t invade Ukraine —all began with the U.S. meddling in a business spat between Russia and Europe.

I’m going to go over the facts as I see them. If you see where I’ve erred, please let me know.

• Europe is 30% dependent on Russian gas. Russia wants to sell high. Europe buy low.
• The U.S. spends $778 billion on its military. Russia’s budget is $62 billion. That’s less then 1/10th of the U.S. budget.
• The four borders of the U.S. are comprised of two friendly nations and two vast oceans.
• Russia’s border to the East include distrustful nations like Poland, which remember Russian occupation; the Western border is China, which has a military budget 5x that of Russia (and growing); the Northern border is the most secure border, though remains long, indefensible and populated by ethnic minorities; Turkey sits at the Southern border and will forever try to block Russian expansion towards the Black Sea. Most of the history of Russia is its neighbors trying to cut it down to size (small, if you please).
• Europe is Russia’s main export “partner” at around 40%. Europe is also Russia’s largest investor.
• Russia’s population is split between those who want to be “Europeans” and those who point Asian or Other.
• Every nation’s military, and ability to defend itself, is a direct function of its economic (exports) profitability.
• In a sense, the U.S. Dollar is pegged to oil because all oil in the Middle East must be sold in U.S. Dollars. Anyone buying gas/oil in non-U.S. Dollars weakens the U.S. Dollar. If this wasn’t the case, the U.S. wouldn’t support Saudi Arabia in all the sleaziness that entails. It wouldn’t have invaded Iraq. It wouldn’t still be in Syria. It remains an arcane subject to 99% of the population.
• Like businesses, every nation uses secondary advantages to monopolize its economic interests where it can. For example, businesses in the U.S. have the benefit of the U.S. petro Dollar (see above). In China, businesses have the benefit of State subsidies and protectionism.
• Green energy has not found a way to replace gas/oil for many critical uses like heating and industrial transportation.

What conclusions do I draw from the above?

• The U.S. can use its entire military budget for offensive interests. Russia must allocate much of its budget for defense. At 1/10th the budget of the U.S., Russia is at a severe disadvantage.
• Russia could invade Ukraine, but it could not keep it. (Crimea is a different story because one, it’s more important to Russia, being on the Black Sea. Secondly, there’s a large Russian-identifying public.)
• Europe lost on its bet in green energy and must pay a premium for gas and oil. Paying a premium for Russian gas remains cheaper than the U.S. Global Order alternatives.

This isn’t a fact, but I believe true. Russia stands behind Putin. They may not approve of Putin’s concentration of power, but that doesn’t make them blind to their history, that if the EU or the United States can take advantage of Russia they will, as many countries have over the centuries.

We only read in the news about how Putin is trying to play European countries off each other, and other nefarious tactics. Again, the truth is, all countries do it, just in different ways. No country is a saint.

The Russians have pointed out, all discussion so far have been like “a mute person talking to a deaf person”.

The U.S. is losing global power. So is Russia. Britain has hurried it along with Brexit. The weak lash out, not the strong.

If pushed too far, Russia might invade part of Ukraine. That would create a black market in oil, which would raise prices around the World. Local wars would probably break out (already started in my view). The U.S. seems to believe it has the strength to get everyone back in line. Biden has played a dangerous gambit.

The problem with that is every nation is changing guard, to a new generation that doesn’t want to be part of the U.S. Global Order.

I can’t say who is right in the end, the U.S. or Russia. All I know is that Russia’s position is not based on the whims of Putin, on authoritarianism, etc. What they say in the press about their geopolitical concerns are not disputed by any expert.

Russia is only threatening Ukraine to send a message to Europe about Europe’s righteous indignation at how Russia operates its oil and gas business. They would have dealt with it behind closed doors if the U.S. didn’t make an issue of it.

But if you want to see Russia in all its evil, then you won’t be disappointed with Adam Somethings recent, short YouTube documentary.