Ah Brian, you say what so many of us feel, but can't say. My 2-cents it the West has Ukraine on a very short leash when it comes to supplying weapons. The U.S. is over-zealous about not letting the war get out of control. My hope is that Ukraine hasn't really begun a meaningful offensive, is waiting for the last minute before the season changes. That hope is dwindling.
If that's not true then when autumn arrives the West will push for negotiations. The Ukrainian government will fall apart because some will want that, but others will go after St. Petersburg and Mosco, blowing up schools and cafes, etc.
All these chickens coming home to roost.