An interesting read! If I accepted your premises I probably wouldn't argue. But your assumptions are quite unorthodox, at least to me.

The issue of Ukraine joining NATO was a perceived threat by Putin and I don't believe a real one. If it WAS a real one then why would he not mind about Finland joining NATO, or other countries much closer to Russia in that way? NATO is, in large part, the beard to the U.S. Defense Industry (and other Europeans who build weapons).

Anyway, by that definition, stopping a "maybe" join NATO and getting a few "yes" join NATO should be a loss today for Russia.

As for joining the EU. I don't get that either. Britain just left. Ukraine doesn't need to join the EU to thrive. Turkey always has one foot out the door.

I would define a Russian victory as getting what Putin pretty much broadcast indirectly. When he said "de-Nazify" he meant remove the existing government that doesn't take orders from Russia and replace it with one that does. He can still win here if he destroys enough of Ukraine, the West doesn't help rebuild, and public sentiment in Ukraine drifts towards Russia (I can't believe this would happen--but anything possible!).

As for losses for the U.S. I believe they will manifest themselves in the future when the U.S. must put boots on the ground--somewhere. As it stands, however, the U.S. has shown just how powerful its weapons are and it would have made them anyway (and thrown them out eventually) while Russia went through its inventory and will be dependent on selling gas/oil in the future to rebuild (not a given).

Again, your assumptions are quite novel. Perhaps you can write a piece on those alone.