Except what is the probability that assertion is wrong?

Your focus was on what probability can predict. More information, better predictions. However, one can look at probability from what can't be predicted OR, even more interestingly, what can't be measured for success or failure.

Number 2 didn't have 100% certainty. There could have been a blackout. The dealer could have had a heart attack. But what's the probability of that? Huh? Huh! :)

Nice piece!