Fascinating! Looks like you put a lot of work into this. Theoretically, I don't believe you could be more right. The problem is Putin's regime is anti-intellectual. It's all about loyalty. And corruption is endemic. The West has it's own problems of course, just as bad in the final analysis.

My belief is in the end the side with the more advanced technology wins. You've laid out clearly why that's far from a foregone conclusion.