For what it's worth, not to me. 50/50, they cancel the program. The launch business is very competitive. Although SpaceX is doing very well, like you said, half the launches are on its start-up business. If Starship blows up on the launch pad it will severely damage SpaceX's reputation. It doesn't matter the history. Look at Blue Origin. One failure and even though no people on board they seem not to want to test the fates.

What's odd to me is how insular space scientists have become to the problems here on Earth. Many scientists are trying to deal with climate change while others talk about Mars as if it's possible tomorrow, which, as you point out, is simply not possible.

The same arguments were made about the NASA moon program while poverty and hunger big issues. In the end, government had to pull back from the space race. Watching rocketry become normal has been thrilling and fun. But in the end, there's nothing in space that will directly help us down here on Earth. The money is drying up.

Starship will go the way of the Spruce Goose.