Great analysis! After I write a piece about how Putin will lose I read some your stuff. Then I think, 'What was I thinking! You're delusionsal Max!"

Everything you wrote seems depressingly right to me. Bucha is the fulcrum of this war. Not because it happened; like you say, part of war. But because if that doesn't get NATO countries fighting Russia directly (or at least sending heavy weapons in, damn the paperwork), then what will? What worse things could possibly happen? I can't think of any.

What Putin lost in a military victory in the North he has gained it getting his enemy complacent and celebrating too early.

The West had a short window where the public is ready to fight and Russia is disorganized. The windows is closing fast.

Like you. I hope I'm wrong.