Great read.! I agree with everything you're saying except I suspect you're grossly underestimating the number of people who will starve and/or freeze in the years ahead.

Putin isn't going to be able to keep his fields producing when he takes the farmer's kids and sends them off to die thousands of miles away.

It doesn't matter whether you're right and Putin survives or I'm right that he doesn't. The question to me is how well can the wealthy and middle-class of the world carry on while the rest of the world enters the world you describe.