Great stuff as always. I find it increasingly interesting that many Russian don't seem too afraid about speaking openly. It's hard to tell, only 25% will talk to 1420 I believe. Also, there are Russian YouTubers who walk through malls showing all the problems and I haven't seen them approached by any KGB types In short, I don't believe all the KGB types under Putin's control go out looking for anti-war or anti-Putin types. In the U.S. some sort of security WOULD approach you if you filmed the aisles.

Anyway, Russians focus on skimming money, as you say. In short, I see little fear in Russian society. Just learned helplessness.

So I question whether Russia strong-arms Ukrainians to come to Russia. If I'm a non-polical person in Ukraine would I really care where I went? Ukraine's economy is near non-existant. At least I wouldn't shelled in deep Russia. And as for political beliefs, once they pass through those filter camps, Russia forgets completely about them (as you've just written).

I believe Putin keeps making the wrong assumption, time and time again. That the KGB has the same power, or does the same thigns, it did when he took power 20 years ago. They all pretend to work. Yes, if there's a protest they'll go out and bang heads. But they aren't doing the work Putin believes they're doing. He lives in a bubble.

He underestimate Ukrainians resistance. The 2nd shoe to drop on hims his he underestimates just how little the KGB foot soldiers and the Russian public cares about Russia's geopolitical interests.

Anyway, stuff I think while reading this.