Hi Juan. Call me crazy but I feel my posts are aging as well as I could have ever expected. Gas has NOT been cut off from Russia, so we don't know if Europeans will turn their thermostats down to 58.

The amount of economic sanctions have surprised me, but the hard fact of war is that Russia controls Ukraine. We can't fly into it. There are limited entrances by truck to the West. Russia has the South almost tied up.

Also most of my analysis is about long term issues. They may age badly! If there is specific thing you believe I've totally got wrong?