Hi Kurt. You certainly know more about rockets than I do. But my argument is very simple. Rockets aren't following any kind of Moore law in lifting capacity. There's no proof, one way or another, that 36 rockets on Starship will work. There's no algorithm to predict the costs or time involved. Reusable rockets are great! But that technology has nothing to do with lift capacity. One can argue all day long that SLS used old technology and the Starship will leap beyond it. It might. But I simply don't see any real proof yet.

SpinLaunch is another unproven technology. It's not even close to commercialization. Starlink can't survive financially through Falcon launches. Again, Musk has admitted that himself and something has to be really TRUE for him not to try to sell his way out of it.