" How is that plan working out so far? The Rouble is the best-performing currency of 2022."
Would take a while to explain what I feel you're missing in that statement "best-performing". It's like saying a baseball pitcher is the best performing in the minor leagues WITHOUT mentioning he's now playing in the minor leagues instead of the major leagues. The Rouble is backed by gold now. Gold gives it great stability. Many in America would like to be on gold too. But it doesn't work in the long term; it just doesn't. Super-powers are built on debt, like it or not. Would you call your Roubles "best performing" when you go out to buy an iPad and it's now $2,000 in Roubles?
"I read numbers from 'serious' people that Russia's economy would drop by 25-30%. Now those same economic experts are saying 7% or less, maybe only for a couple of years."
I'd count myself with those serious economists. Okay, they were wrong. I was wrong. But a 7% drop every year is no joke. You say they will be growing? How? Growing their happiness eating more barley and cabbage? It won't be growing it in affordability and access to Western technology. But hey, probably better to read more books (which they already do from 2014).
"Russia is very autonomous and produces goods that the world really, really wants. Little things like oil, gas, wheat, fertilizer, and rare earth minerals."
True, which is why I think Putin is doomed. No one wants to do business with him anymore--even China. He's burned too many bridges.
"That is why Obama very smartly tried to NOT escalate beyond the Ukrainian coup in 2014."
Maybe Obama was wrong.
"Ukraine is still going to lose, for the same reason Obama gave, plus logistics."
We'll just have to come back here later!
"I think it is a real toss-up who would win if it was US v. Russia in Ukraine, Russia, or in any country bordering Russia."
Military strength is based on three factors IMO. Economy, place of battles and morale. On the first the U.S. is 10 times the size of Russia. Show me any military expert that says Russia would win against the U.S. Can the U.S. invade Russia and win? No. Can they push Russia out of Ukraine? Yes, if they had the will becuase Ukraine is defending.
"Our even bigger problem is the one Ike warned us about 60 years ago: the US MIC."
Yes, I'm super, super critical of the U.S. defense industry and believe it or not I'm a dove. We have institutional corruption. Russia has personal corruption. If your read me before the war I'm all USA SUCKS! But there is a line and Russia crossed it. Western Values do mean something to me. So for now, I am giving our homegrown assholes a pass ;)
