I agree with your larger analysis which is why I believe the pundits don't want to say just how badly Putin is losing. If they do, then they can't keep pressing the Western advantage and ultimately pick Russia apart.
I think all your talk of Russia hasn't really tried yet is fantasy. Sure, they can stay in Ukraine for years. For every soldier they lose another American/European veteran enters because, they DO believe, in the racial elitism you write about. Follow yer own logic ;)
We've spent our lives building Russia up in our minds, remembering all their WWII stuff. All helpful to rationalize our $1 trillion defense spending. Well, they're a shrinking nation drunk on vodka. Their chips are stuck at 65nm, while the world near 2nm. A train wreck.
We shall see! I do see a trend that military men like you believe Russia will prevail. I've never served, so, am curious! You should be right!