I don't believe Russia would have used nukes if NATO tried to push Russia out of Ukraine. Instead, Russia would have retreated and then formed a serious alliance with China.

Indeed, the CCP was promised Taiwan to keep them more allied with the U.S. over Russia.

All these calculations remain, IMO. If China directly sold any weapon system to Russia Ukraine would be a goner. Could NATO beat them back?

The old U.S. lead world order is over. What's next, who knows?