I had to research "flower wars". Yes, I can see it devolving into that. Frequent prisoner swaps don't get much press. They certainly support your thesis.

And I can't forget what I read early on. Someone said, "Life will return to normal in Kyiv and everyone will ignore the fighting int he East as they have since 2014."

Also, I want to be clear. Ukraine making a $50 billion push into Crimea won't end the war. But it will mean something ;) I feel the West blundered by not doing whatever it took to push Russia honorably out of Ukraine in the beginning. Putin is becoming more correct by the day: the West won't die for Ukraine, Russians will (not that I think the common soldier gives a geopolitical rat's ass--just that they'll go).

In short, I believe, long-term, your analysis is correct.