I hate to say this but I believe it's going to happen soon. Don't know if you watch Lei's Talk, but I agree with her, Xi doesn't think in terms of human life or domestic economics, like Putin doesn't. Those who try to rationalize why he wouldn't go to war are misguided. We learned that (and continue to learn) from Putin.

From Xi's point of view, Putin's invasion could not have gone MORE wrong, yet he still has 18%. If China hold 18% of Taiwan's South in 2 years is that a win for China? Probably. So worse case scenario, China keeps small islands and a base in the South.

The United States has let China have its way in the South China Sea. I felt it was over as soon as China was allowed to build those islands. Or to get away with sinking fishing boats.

The writing is on the wall. The U.S. IS weak. It can't come close to China's industrial war output once the missiles fly. Also, like you say, Chinese factories need something to do.

Then there's North Korea, which I believe a puppet, or heavily influenced by China. Should NK attack South Korea at the same time China attacks Taiwan the new world order is here. A video to depress you to the limit, if I haven't done so already ;) https://youtu.be/Ta8O3LLW4pI?si=XhhWPD4q5hUrc5NC