I still believe there's some probability in one of my theories very early on. https://medium.com/@maxrottersman/hoping-russian-s-400-missile-system-ends-ukraine-invasion-8757293a1798

The Russian Air force understands this is an unjust and unwinnable war and it will drag its feet anywhere it can until it is over. If you can understand the physics of flight and read a flight plan then you can use a VPN and figure out what's really going on in the war.

As the joke goes. In the Navy they feed you class C beef because if you get sick and fall off the ship they're only out $20 worth of clothing. In the Army they feed you class B beef because if you did they might be out of a few hundred dollars in guns and equipment. But in the Air Force they feed you class A beef because they don't want you to get sick and crash their $30 million jet.