If Putin is Finished, Is That Good?
This isn’t a prediction, only my Day 4 assessment. Front-line reporting is non existent. Both Russia and Ukraine have managed to keep the war out of public view. Putin himself said the operation would end soon. Usually measured and calm in speech, he has become unhinged talking about the “de-Nazification” of Ukraine.
This is pure speculation! But I’ve rather enjoyed reading how my predictions can be totally wrong — HAHA. So here it is. I believe Russian soldiers, especially those from the more Asian areas of Russia, will find a way to get their tank stuck in the mud and flee.
As the above photo illustrates, Putin is telling officials what to do. There is no working together on the invasion. They will tell him what he wants to hear and quickly try to leave.
I just can’t see how Putin can win long-term. What do most Russians stand to gain? The West has made Russians pariahs, unwelcome in their cities. They don’t want that. I can’t think of anyone who wants it! Who wants to live in a hermit kingdom like North Korea?
This isn’t WWII. Putin doesn’t have the rage of the public behind him. He is facing a Ukraine with a young committed population. Indeed, he is right about one thing — Ukrainians are Russian too. Oh the irony! They are proving his point about the strength of Russians!
I must point out, Zelensky is on the front line and Putin is hiding in his palace. The whole world sees this, even Russians.
The invasion may answer a mystery. A problem which has been uncovered recently, about the Chinese military, probably applies to Russia. In an autocratic regime there is little money for military spending, except politically connected units. So Chinese and Russian officers will file false reports of fuel consumption, say, and sell it on the black market. It has become a huge racket in China which Xi Jinping has been trying to fix.
Yes, the U.S. military complex it also deeply corrupt, but it’s out in the open. We have a much better idea about the various problems. For example, the Navy’s littoral ships, the Patriot Missile shortcomings, the F-35 issues, etc., etc. Criticism does work.
I have no idea what issues there are with Russian weapons.
If the Russian military has a morale problem AND equipment that isn’t what the military says it is, then the Ukraine cannot be taken. Every day I lean closer to that view. I don’t buy the view that they’re massing an overwhelming force. I believe those photos would get out, if that was true.
So if Putin is removed and Navalny put in place, what next?
I’d love to believe the West will forgive Russian instantly and will work to help it improve its economy — but I don’t see it. As evil as Putin may be, he was pushed into Ukraine invasion by arrogant and selfish U.S. energy and defense interests.
The West will try to pick Russia apart. The global economy will continue to deteriorate. The Russian oligarchs will get their yachts back, but what about the Russian people? Or the American or Chinese people? All the global problems remain — and much worse.
Russia has been a buffer between the West and China. Russia has many problems as all nations do. It would give me no pleasure to see Russia weakened. What I hope is for Putin to be removed as soon as possible and a new Russian government take over. I would then hope that the West would give Russia what Putin asked for — a commitment to back off. I would love to see better leadership from the Europe. In the U.S. I give it an ‘F-’
If Putin is deposed, and the West tries to weaken Russia, Russians will re-group as they always do. But of course, nothing has been decided yet. Russia may still end up controlling Ukraine.
