Interesting piece! I wrote a piece theorizing why the Russian Air Force wasn't more involved. https://maxrottersman.medium.com/hoping-russian-s-400-missile-system-ends-ukraine-invasion-8757293a179

However, since listening to some boring as paint-drying aviation nuts, and your piece, I believe it too suffers from what you argue in this article.

I wish the U.S. was more aggressive with the military to get a negotiated peace deal. Putin is old. That regime was running on fumes to begin with. Do a deal, wait until there's another opportunity for Russians to get a better government.

Instead, if what you say is true Putin will mobilize everyone and many will die for nothing. Breaks my heart.