It's like we're all blind men around an elephant. Here's what Jake recently wrote me. Same data, different take (but like you say, who knows!)

Like I said, this is a nail biter. Russia is throwing in everything to make a break-through and both sides are losing heavily in this attrition warfare battle. Casualty figures are suggestive of ?? So, to simplify things I watch tank losses and ratios. The Pentagon said months ago that Russia entered this fight with 120 Battalion Tactical Groups at 10 tanks each or 1200 tanks. Oryx photo-documents 733 Russian tank casualties which pundits claim reflects 80% of actual losses estimated at 977 tanks. That's complete destruction of 98 BTGs or 81% destruction of their initial 120 BTG force. Mind-boggling. Russians from time-to-time claimed that their active army component fields 160 to 170 BTGs. Has Ukraine in 3-month's-time destroyed 57% of the active Russian Army? (Artillery losses or lack thereof are a big factor but hard to document.)