I’ve been looking at this for a few months. After reading you essay I wrote this on my FB timeline (curious your comments if any):

Here’s a bold prediction. Turkey getting serious about buying Russia’s S400 missile system may end’s Trump’s Presidency. The media, almost as ignorant as Trump, are pussyfooting around the issue. The crisis is one that Trump cannot wiggle out of.

Turkey’s Erdogan is no longer negotiating. It’s ultimatum time. So let me make another bold statement. The hawks in the U.S. would literally assassinate anyone helping Turkey put an S400 anti-aircraft system in the same room as the U.S. F-35 fighter. I know I sound nuts, but if you have any friend who knows anything about these weapons ask them.

If you’re reading this so far, I know you think I’m exaggerating. Again, just file this away in your head as one of Max’s crazy theories.

The U.S. has put all its technological knowhow into the F-35 which it will use to gain air-superiority in any future batte. Russia (and others) have put all their technological knowhow into making the S400 system capable of eliminating U.S. air superiority. Since WWII, all battles are won by first establishing air-superiority. Since WWII the U.S. has used that capability to marginally win in the Balkans and with Iraq. If, for the sake of argument, the U.S. could not maintain air superiority in a war with, say Iran, or anyone else, the U.S. has no advantage whatsoever in a land war. This is clearly evident but I’ll won’t go into. Without air superiority, the U.S. is but a paper Tiger.

I don’t know what Erdogan’s end-game is. My guess is the Kurdish territories or more. Like Putin with the Soviet Union, he wants to bring the Ottoman Empire back to its former size. He is pitting the U.S. against Russia. If the U.S. supports him he won’t buy the S400, but will buy the Patriot system as originally planned. If the U.S. does not support him, he will give up the F-35s and dare the U.S. to intervene when he makes his move.

My guess he’s correct in thinking the U.S. would allow him to occupy the Kurdish lands in Syria before taking a chance on losing an F-35s to the S400. After all, NATO has already let Russia take Crimea.

U.S./Turkey relations have been getting worse for a while. Long before Trump. Trump will not be able to comprehend the seriousness of this issue. Either he has had a stroke, or doesn’t even know what the U.S. main battle tank is (and it isn’t even very new). And even if he does understand the gravity of the situation, there is no easy choice. There is no compromise. Erdogan does NOT care about the money. Either the U.S. sides with Turkey in its geopolitical goals or Russia does.

I have no idea which way things will go. If Trump pulls the F-35s, Turkey is out of NATO. Not only will that give another blow to an already fractious EU, it will re-map the Middle East.

If any of you have a prediction, don’t be shy!