My 2-cents. Russia is almost completely spent. All its best forces were killed in the first few months. Any Russian with half a brain has disserted or figured out how to stay away from the front line. Wagner makes a show of force for gold, but they're not stupid--the usual Russian corruption of tell the story the buyer (Putin) wishes to hear and abscond with most of the money. It's not like Putin is going to leave his bunker to check things out.

Whenever Ukraine masses an offensive (like Kherson) Russia retreats. If Russia tries to invade from the North it will be Belarusian soldiers shooting them in the back.

In short, soldiers on both sides, what's left of them, think one thing only--survival. There will be no invasion from the North, at least not from anyone remotely sober.