Nice collection of essays. I believe the war will end with a whimper, not a bang. Putin's rats will scatter. They'll all start making their case that they never wanted the war, it was all Putin ;) Most Russians, like today, will go on with their lives as if nothing happened. Only if the ruble completely collapsed could I see civil unrest.

I feel the framework around your analysis assumes a U.S. of 1990s era strength. Although internally more or less okay, the U.S. is not the global power it once was. It has few carrots or sticks to change much.

I'm not sure who is playing who in Asia ;)

Globally, we're facing growing income inequality, everywhere, in every way, slowing population growth and growing climate change destruction. I can't figure out how they'll all play out.

My prediction is that Putin will be removed. Russia will walk out of Ukraine as if nothing happened. Life will go on in Russia with everyone jockeying for advantage. All the stuff you predicted about nukes, etc., will happen.

Then I guess it's onto conflicts where the U.S. and EU won't be able to handle from their comfy boardrooms.