Nicely put! I don't see Ukraine being the trigger. Putin's gambit has already paid off. Europe sees, more conclusively, what you just wrote. The irony is Europe would be better off having Russia manage it. But like you say, if the U.S. can't have Russia fully under its control then it wants Ukraine.

Russia (and France, 20%) is about to make tanker-load and pipeline full loads of money from their LNG investments. The U.S. can saber rattle all it wants. They have their eyes on the prize.