No One Cares About Russians And They Know It
Would you rather be born in a country that consumes foreign oil for business or one that exports it for money? Except for Canada and Norway, assuming I didn’t come from a wealthy family, I wouldn’t want to bring up children (even more so, daughters) in any of those places.
No, I don’t dislike the Russian people. The problem is that buyers of oil always want the lowest price. Being a commodity, the seller can provide no other value. Getting the lowest price means the exporter must pay the lowest wages possible while preventing anyone from changing the oil exporter’s government to increase the wealth of the general population.
The buyer takes some of that oil (energy) and creates a military to keep the seller in line. Most Americans don’t seem to get that. There has never been, in all the history of mankind, a free market in energy. Guns procure oil.
OPEC is an illusion for us. It is a delusion for its members.
Human nature means we end up with a very small group of people, like a family in Saudi Arabia, controlling the resources. In Russia, that small group of people believe they have rights to do what they want with their oil. That irony just keeps on giving for me! It is the Putin regime, not the LGBTQ unionizers in California who will be educated by the harsh realities of life.
The 40,000 foot view of the war in Ukraine is this — we have the weapons, you have the oil. Back off. Why? Because we told you so.
Buyers want cheap oil and if any exporter gets out of line, like Iraq, they’ll yawn while the exporter gets a lesson in who really owns the resource.
Putin’s most glaring delusion is believing any exporter’s military can match that of the buyer. That’s why he keeps bringing up nukes. Either he uses them or he doesn’t. Either way, the buyer will ultimately prevail (might take a few hundred years if that goes horribly wrong).
Russia was once a tech powerhouse — launching the first satellite into space! Since 2014 Putin has focused all of Russia’s finances towards the natural resources industry and military. Not surprisingly, young Russian tech-talent emigrated. An oft-told story is that the average age of engineers at the largest Russian tank manufacturer is around 60.
I also want to point out there was an argument at the time that the U.S. went into Iraq so China wouldn’t. If you think that’s crazy, consider this — if the West didn’t correct Russia about Ukraine, China would. No, I’m not saying China would have stopped Russia from taking Ukraine. Instead, China would have pulled in one of Russia’s Eastern areas into China. Or maybe it would take the Kirin Islands (a two-fer, put both Russia AND Japan in their places). China will never allow Russia to expand.
FB is overrun by people complaining about the wealth of Bezos, Musk, Buffett, Gates, Zuckerberg, etc., but not a word about how they drive around in their gas guzzling SUVs and pickup trucks on the backs of poor people in all the countries above.
Putin’s regime will eventually go. Europe and Asia will find another regime to sell the oil without creating such a situation where buyers have to spend another wasted hour in an airplane, flying between Europe and Asia.
Ukraine is destroyed. Average Russians will become even poorer. We may have a decade or two of WW III, but in the end, whatever super powers are left will divvy up the world so the buyers can live in peace and the people living in exporting countries, if they want to make money, work within the country’s cabal or find a way to emigrate.
A check will be written to Ukraine as a ‘Thank You’.
I’m not here to excuse Putin or even blame us. I feel lucky to have been born in the United States. The Iraq war came and went (twice). Most Americans will yawn through this one too.