Predictions for May 9th Putin Victory Day
My Rational Prediction
Predicting is futile but in the service of your amusement. On Victory Day I expect Putin to claim the Russian Special Operation a success. He’ll say much work needs to be done, but will be vague about it. He’ll offer a cease-fire out of a concern for Ukrainians and for the sake of negotiations; that is, he’ll say something extraordinarily hypocritical and tone-deaf.
Soon after, the Ukrainians will be pressured by Europe to reach a settlement.
All these old leaders like Putin, Biden and many Europeans — they’ll be dead before this war ends. This isn’t a war of attrition, it will be a war of expansion.
That’s all surface narrative.
The Heart of Darkness
I can’t see how any Ukrainian is going stop fighting after watching Russians cheer on a parade in undamaged Moscow while so many Ukrainians have suffered unspeakable horrors.
Russia should have called off the parade–laugh if you want.
Both Putin and the West, I believe, underestimate Ukraine’s hatred. Ukraine is no longer afraid of Russia. If a Ukrainian general draws up plans to bring the war to Moscow I don’t believe anyone will laugh.
Oh, these are depressing thoughts! Sorry I’m so bleak.
Zelensky, an actor, is immensely relatable and human. But he does not represent all Ukrainians. Various Ukrainian military and militia groups are fighting the Russians, and some like those fighting in Mariupol, will not quit until Russians are begging for mercy.
Zelensky is no longer in control. I’d even make the argument that the West has becomes even more headless. The media on both sides are running an episodic story line based on this front line or that, ignoring the emotional state of the Ukrainians.
Any day I expect civil war to flare up elsewhere. Belarus, Serbia, Kazakhstan, Georgia. Maybe Turkey will take a chunk out of Syria. Maybe Poland will move into western Ukraine (to help). The world is convulsing in post-pandemic disruptions.
Although I didn’t think so at the time, I believe the U.S. should have challenged Russia directly at the beginning with an attempted no-fly zone. It might have brought the war to a quick negotiated settlement. We’ll never know.
The Ukraine war is now a Russian civil war that is burning out of control. It is fought by people who understand each other’s language and who live next to each other. There will be no forgiveness. Most Russians probably don’t feel they’ve done anything needing forgiveness, even if they’re against the war. The Ukrainians are past negotiations.
Russians hide behind the might of the Russian military. They believe the same thing Americans do. The war will never come to us. We’re too strong. They’ve miscalculated. The U.S. never called Iraqis evil. Yes, war is war, but sorry, the U.S. humiliating terrorists in prisons is NOT the same thing as calling a people low-life Nazis and torturing and killing them on a MASSIVE scale.
Putin has called Ukrainians Nazis, allowing young uneducated and undisciplined men the freedom to torture, rape and kill Ukrainians with no feeling of shame.
I see no equivalence between Russia trying to obliterate Ukrainians and any U.S. war.
These are my thoughts after watching many interviews with every-day Russians and Ukrainians. The Russians don’t seem to get it. The Ukrainians play nice for the Western Media, but they are no longer fighting against Putin.
The Ukrainians aren’t Jews. They aren’t a wandering people. They are not Germans either. They are Russians too. They have weapons. They have land with roots of past hatred, raw and exposed. They’re not listening to anyone — not Putin. Not Biden. Not anyone.
As soon as they have enough weapons from the West Ukrainians will splinter. Some won’t care about Europe. Keep in mind, Europe has been, and continues to, disintegrate.
Ukrainians will not rest until Russians get it.
(of course, I hope I’m wrong in these feelings of mine, May 7th, 2022).