Putin Is Running Out of Cover

Killing Prigozhin and Navalny make him weaker, not stronger.

I have been arguing — from the beginning — that Russia cannot survive a sustained war with the tech-manufacturer buyers of Russian natural resources (a.k.a. the West). Ultimately, big money interests in the US/EU will get their investments back, so to speak — and new opportunities in cheap Russian and Ukrainian resources.

China, for mostly sitting it out, will get its cut too. That’s assuming the West and China don’t go to war beforehand.

Militarily speaking, Putin played a Queen’s gambit and failed. Russia is losing all its bishops, rooks and knights; that is, military assets.

Politically speaking, eliminating opponents gives Putin a short-term boost in power projection but carries with it a long-term liability. Prigozhin and Gherkin were once friends and protectors. Putin has never been more exposed to internal insurrection.

Ukraine losing Avdiivka

For political reasons Putin put everything into capturing Avdiivka. With an incredible cost in manpower and machines (bishops and knights) it has been accomplished. However, I expect we’ll read about Russian ammunition (well, everything) shortages this spring.