Putin Is Running Out of Cover

Killing Prigozhin and Navalny make him weaker, not stronger.

Max Can't Help It!


I have been arguing — from the beginning — that Russia cannot survive a sustained war with the tech-manufacturer buyers of Russian natural resources (a.k.a. the West). Ultimately, big money interests in the US/EU will get their investments back, so to speak — and new opportunities in cheap Russian and Ukrainian resources.

China, for mostly sitting it out, will get its cut too. That’s assuming the West and China don’t go to war beforehand.

Militarily speaking, Putin played a Queen’s gambit and failed. Russia is losing all its bishops, rooks and knights; that is, military assets.

Politically speaking, eliminating opponents gives Putin a short-term boost in power projection but carries with it a long-term liability. Prigozhin and Gherkin were once friends and protectors. Putin has never been more exposed to internal insurrection.

Ukraine losing Avdiivka

For political reasons Putin put everything into capturing Avdiivka. With an incredible cost in manpower and machines (bishops and knights) it has been accomplished. However, I expect we’ll read about Russian ammunition (well, everything) shortages this spring.

General Oleksandr Syrskyi will attack where he believes Ukraine can win. Avdiivka was played-out, a distraction. I understand one could argue I’m rationalizing away Ukraine’s failure. I’m not. Ukraine lost.

So what? Russia will lose more this summer. That’s been the pattern since the beginning.

Many news reports claim Russia is building 100 tanks a day, more missiles, drone factories, etc. So what? It’s all old-tech weapons. Yes, even drone technology gets old.

Russia isn’t building many — if any — state-of-the-art helicopters, fighter aircraft, AWACs, navy vessels and other advanced equipment.

You know who is becoming a leading manufacturer of high-tech drones and the best tactics for using them? Ukraine.

Yes technology isn’t everything. To hold a defensive line behind mine-fields you don’t need advanced fighter jets. So yes, Russia can defend its land grab of Ukrainian territory for years.