If the U.S. Betrays Ukraine, Then What?
Do we, U.S. citizens, get more information than Russians, about what’s going on in Ukraine? I’ll posit, no.
What we do get is the freedom to express any opinion possible. Russians do not get that freedom. What this means is that it’s easy to overlook that we learn nothing from our government’s intelligence services.
Our media is so happy to get the privilege of going to press briefings they never bite the hand that feeds — never risk getting uninvited by asking hard questions — like what is the estimate of tank and artillery force capabilities in Ukraine — today.
Ah, the superiority — freedom of expression! We can bloviate about this or that, rub our freedoms Russian’s faces. But at the end of the day, we’re just sheeple. We cannot get our government to tell us what’s really going on — and believe me, they know a great deal. (All collected on our dime).
Jack Albrecht, one of my readers, pointed that out, in so many words, and the evidence about how the information is spun politically. He pointed out that if Russia has lost as many tanks as the all the ex-military experts claim, Russia should be demonstrably losing. Which is true? Doesn’t our government owe us the truth?
Jake Jacobs, who I wrote about in my last piece, has opened my eyes to a hard-nosed truth. Western weapons do not guarantee a win for Ukraine.
So what is Ukraine to do, if we look at the situation dispassionately?
First, I believe Andrew Tanner is right, the U.S. has a long history of betrayal. The question isn’t will the U.S. betray Ukraine. The question is when and how much.
Once Ukraine gets all it can from of the U.S., and Western leaders move back to empty words, Ukraine must do what Russia attempted to do at the start (when Putin Para trooped assassins in to kill those guarding Zelensky’s government). Ukraine must bring the war to Russia.
But before I get going, I’m going to quote _Ryan_’s comment on my last story, in full. He doesn’t write stories himself so I don’t want you to have missed it.
— COMMENT —
“You did not understand what he [Jake Jacobs] told you…
A 3:1 ratio applies for a battle, not a war.
He is actually generous by saying 3:1. In NATO we fight 4:1. And how the Ukrainian defense strategy was set up the Russians need 6:1.
What you totally forget are how to achieve war-goals. You look at maps. It does not matter how much red a map is. The Russian flags they put up there do not mean that this is now Russian like on a risk-board or chess board.
If there are 200,000 Ukrainians fighting the war is not over. As those boys with guns, will kill every Russian boy no matter what flags are on the houses (which color the map is).
This is how you win wars: You have to beat the army.
The Ukrainians do not need to be of control of Crimea or Donbass. They have to beat the Russian army.
Now how do you beat the Russian army? I can tell you from our secret services & think-tanks: killing as many Russians as necessary. That is the only way how to stop Russia from war: Casualties. …
The Russian forces around Kyiv did not withdraw because of some tactical or strategical loss. The Russian’s realized that their casualty-numbers went so high up, that they can not fulfill the objectives (Ukraine in total). That’s why they moved to the east. The reason why they withdraw from Kharkiv is because Kharkiv is 3 times the size of Mariupol.
Urban warfare you fight in a ratio 8:1/10:1.
Means if 10,000 Ukrainians defend Kharkiv — Russia would need 80,000 men to take the city. That is half of their entire forces in Ukraine. That is why Ukraine defends it cities. As those choke-points are meat-grinders for Russians: There the casualty numbers will rise extraordinary.
That is why Russia focuses on the east while holding in south on Kherson — as if they loose Kherson it is impossible to take it back.
Russia is in a dumb position: Politically it requires a victory — but every day Russians die.
Ukraine does not need to attack, as it would put them into the position to fight 4:1 up to 10:1.
That is why Russia digs in to not prevent causalities and Ukrainians try to find the weak spots — to cause more causalities.
The Russians know for long that they can not win it — but they can not stop now, so that a death-spiral for them is right now at work. They send in more men into the Donbass — while knowing the Ukrainians will not stop defending = more causalities.
The Ukrainians can mobilize around one million people.
Russia has already lost its professional military — there are no mercs coming — and runs now on reservists.
And it is just a question of time till these 200,000 guys go down, too. And then Russia has a real problem.
And that will be very visible the moment Ukraine uses NATO equipment at scale. As the Russians have nothing to compete with that. And that should even answer all your questions.
The mistake you do — and many do — is to think Ukraine has the same war-goal like Russia.
Russia needs to hold territory. Ukraine has only to kill Russians. If Russia says now: Okay peace. And Ukraine says: Nope. That Russian military has to stand there. Every day of the week. For month. Even years. If Russia wants to pay 200,000 boys (who need food, supplies, medical care) for the upcoming five years and want it to be normal that people will say: my brother, son, spouse, friend died in Ukraine.
Then they can have this. That is how Ukraine wins the war.
And for the record, the Russians only got into the south because Ukrainian commanders let them, as they were paid off. They’re already in jail. Even Russia know Kherson was no military achievement.”
— END COMMENT
As Jake said, Ukraine must find and exploit any weak spot in Russia’s prosecution of the war.
If we extend Ryan’s logic, the only thing preventing Ukraine from killing Russian soldiers, KGB, etc., in Russia, it the escalation may give the West the jitters. Weapon shipments could be slowed or eliminated.
If we extend Ryan’s logic, the only thing preventing Ukraine from killing Russian soldiers, FSB, etc., in Russia, it the escalation may give the West the jitters. Weapon shipments could be slowed or eliminated. I conclude that if Russian civilians get killed in Russia from Ukrainian attacks, Ukraine will have reasoned that the West favors negotiation (giving up territory) over Ukrainian victory.
The West underestimates the built-up rage that must exist in Ukraine for any Ukrainians watching Russian TV, or Russians being interviewed about the war. I’m still hopeful SG is right and Ukrainian are better than that. Again, logic seems to dictate Ukraine must take the war to the Russian people if it can’t push Russia out through its artillery.
It’s already begun. Nadin Brzezinski has been covering the sabotage that is the natural precursor to assassinations.
When I watch Russian State TV I’m shocked by how belligerent it is. They talk about dead Ukrainian children and mothers, stuff that makes Fox commentators looks like polite hosts of English tea parties.
I’m sure Ukraine doesn’t want to stoop to Russia’s level, but what other choice do they have if they can’t get the weapons they need?
One might argue that Ukraine can’t attack Russia because then Russia will fully-mobilize and crush Ukraine. I don’t see it. For every battalion Russia moves to Ukraine the weaker it ends up internally. The vastness of Russia is a weakness always begging to be exploited by every jackal — the U.S., Turkey, China, India and, well, every nation withing spitting distance of a Russian border.
After I posted this, I was informed that there are anti-Putin Russians fighting in Ukraine and we may see a larger “Free Russia” fighting force entering Russia or Crimea in the future, perhaps formed around the Freedom of Russia Legion.
Anyway, I believe Russia is trying as hard as it can to win. Threats are meaningless; that’s why it keeps playing the nuke-card. Indeed, I believe Russia has been weakened enough — and will continue to be weakened through sanctions — that the U.S. will compromise.
But the U.S. has blundered into believing it controls Ukraine.
Unlike Chechnya, Ukraine has the weapons, expertise and experience to run sophisticated operations within Russia. They can slip over the border. Unlike Chechnya, they can return to a safe place. They can work with other groups in Russia (or other interests) who also want the Russian government weakened, if not replaced.
The war will come to Moscow and St. Petersburg. It’s how war works once stalemate begins. It’s a two-way border and Russia has a lot to lose.
(I still hope something happens to Putin and Russia pulls out. Also, I apologize if I come across as glorifying war.)