Russia’s Insanely Stupid Winter Offensive

If you’re a military person, please don’t hesitate to call me insanely stupid if I’ve got it wrong.

Although the media has reported that Russia has mostly failed in its winter offensive, they haven’t pointed out why Russia’s failure is exponentially worse than the limited territory they captured. I’m going to use Bahkmut as an example, but the same poor decision-making can be seen in Avdiivka and to a lesser extent, New York.

Here’s Bahkmut today, April 6th, 2023

After about five months, Russia has captured about 80% of Bahkmut. Is Russia doing as poorly as the Western media makes out? No. Until you look at what’s been going on for the past five months.

The above map illustrates how much Ukrainian held territory Russia can attack with its three front lines, to north, east and south. How on Earth did those Ukrainians in the center survive for so long!

Compare that to a map of the Russian positions Ukraine can attack from its small amount of territory (the city).