Same here! Agree, if flow of weapons dries up Russia will win. I believe it more likely the other way, but by my predicting that your prediction becomes more likely ;)

I'm not rejecting your fundamental premise. To the contrary, I agree it is root of the matter. We just see different mechanisms.

Mine is that the EU hasn't faced those facts straight on so has sold itself the dream of renewal energy saving the planet. While it's doing that, it expects Russia to sell gas/oil at a discount. There's a long story behind that, which I'm not sure how true, but I believe it. And it does fit with exactly what you're saying that Putin knows he has the real power. And I would agree with him. I agree with you that he believes Russia should be calling the shots.

So why would he invade? The energy markets would eventually richly reward Russia. It's why I, and others, predicted he would never invade. I expected he'd get the deal he wanted, he'd withraw the troops and they'd connect Nord Stream II. We must recognize he's too old to see that stragegy through.

I hear your argument but it isn't strong enough for me. So please, keep trying! Instead, I must apply Occum's razor and see that he is a man, holed up in the same place for 3 years, surrounded by psychophants, becoming increasingly paranoid and bitter towards the U.S., on mood-chaning cancer drugs, and decided to lash out, to "thrash" Zelensky as he said. Once he did that, everyone in his regime had to play catchup. They understand they're better sticking with the horrible plan then trying a coup (though that may/has changed).

You're not a lunatic fringe climate doomer. Rather, most of the world is delusional to the point of mental illness. You've reported fact after fact after fact.

We get back to irrationality. Putin invaded Ukraine from an irrational fear of losing control of Russia. A hatred for the West. Climate deniers have an irrational fear of losing their comfortable lifestyles (F-250 pickup trucks), etc. And they have an irrational hatred of "liberals".

In my final analysis. The climate will change. People aren't wired to change that. The stronger military will get the Russian oil. That military is in the West. China will be bought off with stable oil supplies (as it was during the Iraq wars). We completely agree. there will be no winners.