Thanks for insight! My take is more like Russia surprised Ukraine and through that and bribes was able to take defensive positions in 20% of Ukraine. Ukraine was so spooked about Kyiv it focused on that and not on the Donbas or the South.

"stated primary objective of Russia"? Well, we could talk about that all day and night. I'd start with "What stated objective? Or, okay, which one of the dozens they put out?"

My point of this story is it doesn't really matter how much of Ukraine Russia can hold onto or capture. It will go the way of Carthage if it doen'st change leadership and back down.

But I reocgnize your analysis might be right. We shall see!