The first piece is really a correction of a journalists assumptions about data. I could write those all day long ;) The second deals with too-short a time period. The dollar goes up and down. Nothing conclusive yet, to me.
Like many, when Powell said "transitory" I wanted to go outside and scream bloody murder. When you say transitory you're making two predictions. One, that something will continue to go up. Two, that it will go down soon after. We can't predict the weather farther out than a week but the Fed can see months down the road? That kind of public pronouncement, even if it true, weakens public trust (which has happened).
I don't know what will happen. So I am NOT saying you're wrong! Just putting in my 2-cent. Here's what I wrote soon after Powell made his announcement.
