The U.S. can "save" Taiwan or Ukraine, but not both. The wink-wink deal you walk about comes down to that in the end. I agree with you, diplomacy readying Russia taking over Ukraine. And, like you say, that doesn't mean all out war, but if that's what it takes it will happen. Russia is sick of China getting a free ride on its military tech. Russia also wants to be more European, something lost on too many people. GREAT article as always. You nailed it.