To make the counter-argument. There are scary parallels between Putin and Xi. Both oversaw the fat part of their nation's economic growth. Both are overseeing the ugly part of their nation's declines.

If Xi invades Taiwan Chinese will get hit by the same sanctions--or will it? Tons of stuff in my life are made in China. Nothing is made in Russia. Anyway, invasion is a nuclear option--I don't see it.

Xi might lash out like Putin with his military. He has been working to make it less corrupt, even before the Ukraine war.

These dictators always think they're smarter than everyone else. What's rational, or good for their people, fades away to their beliefs in what history should be written.

My 2-cents is Xi will strengthen its control of the South China Sea. That will have consequences for Taiwan. Fighting will start somewhere.