Ukraine Has Been Sold Down The River. Let’s Stop Pretending Otherwise

All true military powers have oil/gas resources. There are no oil/gas fields independent of military power. If you believe that, all the rest is simple logic.

Ukraine Exists At The Pleasure of the U.S.

Ukraine imports $70 billion and exports $42 billion. Without U.S. Dollars to make up the $28 billion in deficit (to buy energy), Kyiv could not afford to fight.

Russia Has The Oil/Gas Revenues to take control of Ukraine

Russia exports around $280 billion. It’s imports are slightly less. The sanctions hurt Russia’s economy but they don’t change the simple fact that Ukraine’s budget requires foreign money and Russia is self-sufficient.

Russia is self sufficient. Ukraine is not. It bears repeating. Russia is self sufficient. Ukraine is not.

Oil/gas and Weapons are married at the hip. Again, you won’t find one without the other.

The U.S. sells $320 billion in arms. It’s #2 competitor is Russia, followed by France.

To fight Russia, Ukraine imports $9 billion in fuel from U.S. dollars, which the U.S. supplies. If Ukraine had to buy the fuel itself it would need 21% of it’s export revenues to do so. That’s impossible; Again Ukraine runs near $28 billion in annual deficits!

Lately I’ve read that Ukraine can “fight without the U.S.” All it needs is European support. That’s delusional. Yes, Europe has weapons. But it doesn’t have the oil/gas resources. Russia knows it has the upper hand with Europe.

Russia used to export $15 billion in weapons. Today, $3 billion. From the point of view of the U.S. defense industry, the Ukraine war has generated at least $12 billion a year in additional arms sales for a $8 billion a year in oil/gas investment. The European defense industry (and China’s dual-use manufacturers) are NOT complaining.

U.S. gas companies have also done quite well selling LNG to Europe.

China and India have enjoyed getting their hands on tons of discounted oil and gas, which they refine or use in manufacturing (where sanctions never reach).

So why would Trump or anyone want to end the war?

Because, truth be told, it is NOT a war. It IS a “special military operation.” Just like Putin says.

What the U.S. (and others) do not want is a REAL WAR.

In a real war, the full citizenry must take part. In a real war, governments topple. They fall.

Ukraine is fighting a real war. A win or lose everything, existential conflict. Or is it? (Tom Cooper points out that not everyone in Ukraine acts that way).

From the perspective of the U.S., Europe and China, Russia has become severely weakened. Everyone has gained something.

Best to end the game now while everyone (except Ukraine) has a winning hand?

Why now? Because the risk of Russia disintegrating is greater than further profits or market share. Who would put Russia back together again? The U.S.? Some European countries? China? Japan?

No one wants Russia. Sure, China will take some pieces, maybe. Keep in mind, Europe pretended not to notice Putin becoming Emperor as cheap Russian gas ran their economies.

The weapons industry is a human virus that has existed for as long as humans have built city-states. It wants to infect as many political regimes as possible without killing the host (which is partly what’s happening in Israel).

Ukraine is fighting a war. Israel sees itself as fighting a war. The rest of the world is fighting for export market share. Their “Special Military Opportunity”!

What can Ukraine do when everyone decides the time has come to cede Russia parts of Ukraine in light of the above? (Again, Russia is in no state to enjoy the spoils of the Ukrainian Donbas).

My guess is Russia would give all of Donbas back if ALL sanctions were removed and it kept Crimea. U.S. LNG cannot compete price-wise with Russian gas through pipelines.

Everyone who makes real money in Russia works in oil/gas or defense. You don’t need to understand Russian history to make sense of the SMO. All Russians are fighting for more money, from the company oligarchs to the lowly soldiers from bumfuck Siberia. Those who didn’t want to fight left. Russia didn’t stop them.

One might argue, but why couldn’t Russia make more money, gain more status in the World, without war? Because Putin’s regime decided they couldn’t. They couldn’t deliver the results Putin expects. So Putin lined up all the tanks around Ukraine and sent a very visible message to everyone — pay more, give us the respect we deserve, or we take what we want.

Did it go well for Putin? No. But they’ve stuck with their plan and everyone knows, at this point, that the war is at a stalemate. U.S. weapons alone are not enough to defeat Russia.

Idealism is a funny thing. No one stood up for Ukraine — with boots on the ground — to protect Ukraine’s sovereignty. Now it’s become a business conflict to be negotiated in Alaska, or Turkey or Qatar — wherever.

I expect everyone to fail in their efforts to end the war. The war will expand out. For every executive who wants to cut bait and move on there will be an executive who wants to keep the game going. Then there’s the simple fact that Ukrainians might not want to play anyone’s sucker.

If the U.S. pulls energy (money) resources Ukraine might start fighting a no-holds-barred asymmetric war. They won’t need much energy for that. Indeed, if I was giving Ukraine advice I’d tell them to become brutal beyond anyone’s imagination. That’s not what I WANT them to do. But if they truly want all their land back they’ll have to get out from the U.S. managing the war through control of the energy spigot. Don’t think there aren’t Ukrainians who are way ahead on that, if the U.S. cuts off support one time too many.

It’s also what Israel is doing. Again, I don’t want that OR Ukraine going into lunatic mode either. But that IS what’s happening. We have to face it.

If both Russia and the U.S. couldn’t last in Afghanistan they have no hope controlling Ukraine under similar circumstances.

I’ve said it many times. We’re in the early stages of World War III. Why? Because energy and resources are running out. Growth has stalled. Everyone feels entitled to this or that.

Either Ukraine wins or asymmetric wars explode across the region. Israel shows the future. All the best U.S. weapons at Israel’s disposal have not given them control over Gaza, which is barely a millimeter of map space in Ukraine.