Russia Plays Into Ukrainian Rope-A-Dope

Though It Would Rather Be Doing Something Else

Mark Wylie
  • After 120+ days Russia is no closer to subjugating Ukraine than it was before February 24th. Therefore, Russia should quit attacking. But like Foreman, it just can’t conceive of losing.
  • Sanctions work, they just take time. Moreover, their ability to weaken another nation’s military is underappreciated.
  • No smaller autocracy has ever prevailed over a large democracy.
  • Russia is fighting with poor, uneducated men from small villages; Ukraine is fighting with men and women from all aspects of society — including experienced foreigners.
  • Russia is expending ordinance and wearing down equipment faster than it is replacing it with newly manufactured equipment. (A big question, does the West have, and can deliver, enough equipment to Ukraine for it to gain the upper hand? Those stats are closely guarded secrets but I believe if it was a problem we’d notice it in the posture of Western leaders.)
  • In time, Russia’s inventory of weapons will reach parity with Ukraine’s; however, Ukraine’s weapons will continue to improve while Russia will find it more difficult to manufacture weapons (again, Sanctions).
  • Even China and India will run out of storage for cheap Russian oil which will make it increasingly difficult for Russia to make money it can use, even in China.
  • China does not want trouble with its Muslim Eastern half (Xinjiang may be pacified but there are more areas than that). So I don’t see China risking domestic unrest in the East by shipping weapons across both countries to Ukraine. I’m firmly of the belief that China wants nothing to do with Russia’s self-destruction.
  • Putin’s regime doesn’t listen to its pro-Russian “crowdsourcing” criticism. Therefore, it continues to make tactical military blunders.
  • Comparing economic strength, Russia has as much chance of defeating the West as Texas would have beating the United States at large.
  • Russia burnt too many Western and Asian bridges with its continuous threat of nuclear war. For all their differences, the West, China and Asia will end up on the same page when it comes to Russia’s ability to threaten anyone with nuclear war in the future — these aren’t threats that will be forgotten, in my opinion. (Not once has the US or China even remotely suggested that nukes would be used over Taiwan).
  • Russia has no real friends. As cynical as I am, friendship does exist. For starters, Poland took in most of Ukraine’s women and children. China has done nothing for Russia of any substance.
  • China and the EU want Russian gas/oil. The U.S. wants Russia de-militarized. The average Russian doesn’t care wo runs the country. The cost of outside Russian interests taking it by force, and economic siege warfare, is declining relative to the cost prior invasion.
  • Russia believes it’s damaging Ukrainian morale by terrorizing various cities with missiles. Instead, it revitalizes Western support. More ordinance wasted.

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