What Russians and Canadian Truckers Have In Common

Russians want more money for the natural gas mined in Siberia. Not liking higher prices, Europe couldn’t find a pen to sign Nord Stream II’s release papers. Russia decided to send some troops to the boring-as-Kansas Ukrainian border, conveying their deep irritation. Before Europe could pick up a pen, the U.S. stepped in.

No! Say’s the U.S.’s 2nd most corrupt and inept President of the last century. Europe has to buy from us, even if it’s more expensive after freezing and shipping across the ocean. Back off Russians or we’ll cut you off from our banking system. No more tacky 300-foot yachts for you! It is OUR banking system. (Forget everything we said about SWIFT being a politically blind global trust. Germany, shut up!).

Across the globe, Canadian truckers want more money and less hassle to move resources. The Trudeau Administration said no, we’re going to prevent anyone from sending you money and will cut off access to your bank accounts. Honking your horn and grilling a hot dog on the street of Ottawa. You’re worse than terrorists!

The Truckers have been shown what-for. I expect Russia will back down eventually. Being armed, they won’t go easily like the truckers.

Putin works for the top 100 Russian oil, gas and mining interests. Since 1999, he’s managed Russia’s affairs so well they let him play de facto Russian Czar. As I write, Putin has aggravated the West by surrounding Ukraine with soldiers and equipment. Why would the oligarchs go along with it?

Russian oligarchs are in the business of oil, gas, natural resources and military equipment. Except for their resources, they don’t care about the political control of Ukraine; that is, as long as they can develop Ukrainian resources they don’t, theoretically, care if Ukraine is a democracy or autocracy.

Theoretically.

The media often portrays the U.S. and Russia as two systems battling for national alliances. Nope. The U.S./West (EU, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, etc) is a the alliance.

Russia is 1/10th the strength of the United States. Russian oligarchs don’t have to work within the U.S./West alliance, but make no mistake, that’s where they obtain real status.

Consider, China is a huge consumer of oil. Russia can sell all its oil to China and ignore the West if it chose. China too, can buy all the Russian oil it needs, and produce products and services only for its internal consumption–and Russia’s. Why don’t they do that? Seems so simple!

No one in the Russia power-elite want that. In the real world, you’re only somebody if you have a penthouse in New York or London, for starters. If your kids don’t attend U.S. or European Universities, who are you? Even the Russian middle class doesn’t want any more Chinese TVs.

Refugees who brave open oceans are the most clear-eyed people when it comes to grasping the brutal benefits of living within the U.S./West alliance.

The U.S./West is hardly monolithic. Within the alliance there are other interests (like Apple and China) not far removed from the ham-fisted oligarchs in Russia. They have a symbiotic relationship with non U.S./West nations, like Russia and China, obtaining cheap labor and resources.

Therefore, the Ukraine situation is not a war between the U.S. and Russia. It’s a negotiation by Russia for increased compensation.

Although Russia will never replace the U.S., it might come out of these negotiations better in the end.

Then the bigger question, no matter which one does better from the Ukraine stand-off, will the U.S. or Russia end up paying a greater internal price than the short-term value of what’s achieved?

Take Energy prices. The U.S. may be able to sell its LNG to Europe over that of Russia’s, but the higher prices may plunge its economy into a recession or worse. Or, Russia may end up getting higher prices for gas, but the stability of supply might allow Europe to get stronger in every other economic measure, ending with Russians revolting.

How do we identify the U.S./West alliance and everyone else?

Military cooperation always matches economic cooperation. A quick list of those in the U.S. military/economic alliance, based on which nations can buy the most advanced U.S. fighter, the Lockheed Martin F-35, is the United Kingdom, Italy, Netherlands, Australia, Norway, Denmark, Canada, Israel, Japan, South Korea, Poland, Belgium and Singapore.

Without parts, supplies, updates, etc., from the United States, F-35s are useless. All nations mentioned above have tightly integrated banking systems and legal agreements. Because of the sensitive technology used in F-35s, the weakest nation can risk the security of all the others.

Where the U.S. focuses on offensive weapons, Russia invests more heavily in defensive weapons, like the S-400 anti missile/aircraft system.

Current customers (which are wishy-washy) are China, India and Turkey. Others interested are: Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Algeria, Morocco, Egypt, Vietnam, and Iraq. Russia’s F-15 equivalent fighter, the MiG-29, has been sold to: India, Algeria, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Belarus, Bulgaria, Chad, Cuba, Eritrea, Iran, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Myanmar, North Korea, Peru, Poland, Serbia, Slovakia, Sudan, Syria, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan.

If you’re thinking cynically, “Who cares about any of those countries?” I need no longer belabor this point.

Suffering a post-pandemic recession, there are oil miners and truckers the world over who are not amused by all those working at home on their Zoom calls, sanctimoniously talking about climate change while complaining about paying too much for gas which no one should use (but must).

The world needs more gas and oil to combat climate change — ironically! Keep messing with Russia and the truckers and it will cost us dearly. The Russians have already made that point abundantly clear.