What strengthens your argument is that a superpower can't easily back down. Or maybe anybody? Witness the U.S. civil war which was obviously going nowhere good right from the beginning.
That's why Russia continues to fight Ukraine back. Everything that could go wrong for Russia did go wrong. But to retreat would be the end of their gov't. People say, "Putin only cares about staying in power." Be that as it may, it doesn't mean that if he retreated and stepped down it would be good for Russia.
Biden has shown himself to be the most belligerent President in my memory. So what you say adds up to me more than ever.