When the war began I believed economic forces, sanctions, the 10x strength of Ukraine's backers would end in Russia leaving Ukraine. A year later, I've come around to your logic.

I won't be surprised if Ukraine makes a very successful push in the South towards Crimea. Everyone will cheer! And then, another year later, Russia will still control 15% of Ukraine and the war will bog down again.

Chris Snow points out the financial pressures. As much as I want to agree with him completely, I look at Iran, Venezuela, (Libya a while back), Cuba, etc. People forget that population wise, Russia is close to Iran. The truth is, the West can (has) lived without Russia being part of our economy so can do so for a long time. The evidence is that no matter how much country might suffer financially it can carry on for decades.

Another proxy war will flare up. That's my prediction. Oddly, only that might get Russia and Ukraine into a ceasefire. Anyway, great analysis. I'd even extend what you wrote about the Balkans. They don't blame each other for their war, they blame NATO. It will be the same for Russia. They will NEVER admit they were wrong. It's just human nature, everywhere.