Who Benefits From Trump’s Tariffs

Tariffs DO Work For Trump Supporters

Reading the media, you’d think Trump is literally insane to implement tariffs. Except to the Penguins of Heard Island. They had it coming.

Tariffs will drive up the prices for all Americans. They will cause a recession. They will annoy all our friends in Europe. Why is he allowed to get away with it!

The simple answer is: money.

If Trump can take a cut of $150,000 — and those around him their share — do you think they care if it costs Americans $500 each?

Please note, my theory is unorthodox.

When push comes to shove, politicians don’t care what prices Americans pay. They only care about who will pay to get them elected.

There are three sources of money for politicians. Manufacturers, distributors and individuals. We won’t talk about individuals because once elected, politicians only listen to big money.

So it’s between manufacturers and distributors; historically they’re always at war.

What we’re witnessing is a return to isolationism. Why, because the tech elites didn’t share their wealth enough to satisfy all Americans — not just those who live in coastal cities.

Beginning in the 1980s (see chart above), U.S. distributors discovered that China was making goods that undercut all the local U.S. manufactured goods in various retail stores. Walmart became the biggest distributor of cheaper Chinese goods (Amazon followed later).

Walmart made a fortune from marking up Chinese made goods. Most American manufacturers went out of business. From 1980 until 2015 the U.S. economy was run by distributors.

The good times for distributors and cheaper goods for Americans ended around 2015. (chart above). They ended because China can no longer cut prices.

Now that distributors don’t have the growing profit margins they once had, the U.S. manufacturers (domestic reach only) are looking to get ahead. To do this they fund Republican and Democrat campaigns in the interest of blocking out foreign competitors. Trump is providing the cover.

The Republicans are fueled by voters left out by the “blue” state distributors.

It’s been working since Trump’s first term because it becomes a self-perpetuating machine. Donations lead to tariffs, tariffs lead to more business extraction for donors and that leads to more money for politicians.

Biden did it too.

You may be thinking, the domestic-only manufacturers are small-fry. What about the interests of the 300 million Americans?

Again, individuals don’t matter. The economic health of the country doesn’t matter.

Why don’t the distributors — who are now the wealthiest — fight back? The same reason the wealthy German aristocracy didn’t take the Nazis seriously. They believe the craziness will go away.

Further, the public is already sick of Walmart and Amazon’s wealth (plus the tech firms which handle their advertising). Second, Chinese goods HAVE become more expensive and there’s nothing the distributors can do about it.

That is, large corporations would rather pocket their current profits than risk it on a fight with Trump.

The U.S. is now controlled by mafia-like domestic interests.

It does not matter how destructive it is to the general economy. All that matters is politicians get steady money.

One can’t understand tariffs without being a clear-eyed cynic. Tariffs work very well, in the short term, by taking over the government and making a mafia out of it. The distributors have monopolies so are careful not to get into a pissing war with the new manufacturer controlled government.

Reducing Federal government removes regulations which are the bane of U.S.-owned business interests. It also creates more operations to be privatized.

Tariffs are a shake-down. They are a kind of “gunboat” diplomacy.

WAR

Unfortunately, long-term, tariffs never work and they increase the probability of war. Tariffs increase costs. The public being economically illiterate look for someone to blame. The politicians claim foreigners are belligerent and looking for war.

(While all this is going on privatization of national assets self-perpetuates).

Israel blames the Palestinians. Americans blame immigrants. Russians blame Americans. Everyone blaming someone else.

There is no path to peace. None whatsoever. The blame game, and tariffs, end only when war has completely exhausted everyone’s ability to wage it.

In the above you can see how imports rose before the Smoot-Hawley tariffs. Only a depression and war would clear them.

None of this is new. A short history:

Early America (1790s-1860s): Northern manufacturers dominated policy, implementing high tariffs that benefited their industries while Southern agricultural exporters opposed them. Hamilton’s “Report on Manufactures” provided intellectual cover, but the real driver was northern industrial power in Congress.

Post-Civil War (1860s-1920s): The triumph of northern industrial interests led to some of America’s highest tariff rates. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930 represented the apex of manufacturer influence, coming just as their political power was about to wane.

Mid-20th Century (1940s-1970s): The rise of American global corporations changed the dynamic. These companies wanted access to foreign markets, so they pushed for reciprocal trade agreements. Note that this wasn’t about “free trade” as an ideal but about specific corporate interests gaining global reach.

Globalization Era (1980s-2010s): This period saw distributors (Walmart, later Amazon) gain enormous political influence. Their business model depended on global supply chains, and they effectively lobbied for policies that enabled cheap imports.

Current Shift (2010s-Present): We’re seeing a realignment where remaining domestic manufacturers, particularly in “rust belt” regions, have regained political leverage through their electoral importance. Meanwhile, global corporations have already secured their supply chains and market access.

The established oligarchs watch on as Trump and his regime strip the U.S. of everything they don’t control. The unwritten deal is Trump doesn’t go after them if they shadow-ban criticism. It’s why they all lined up behind him at the inauguration.

We’ve been down this road before, 100 years ago.