Why is it propaganda? Propaganda is usually about intent. "We're the most virtuous...they're evil" etc.

I think he' generally wrong about Ukraine because he underestimates American's pride. As in the film Patton, "Americans love a winner." And they love underdogs. Ultimately, the U.S. will do whatever it takes to win. I hope it doesn't come to that (though I wish we gave more support so far) and Ukraine can do it soon.

He's also wrong in overestimating Russian pride. If Russia invaded NYC, as much as Texans hate New Yorkers, they'd be up in as fast as their pickups could take them. There is no similar response in Russia.

All that is my opinion. Mearsheimer's might prove better.