Why Trump Bombed Iran: The Red Pill Answer

I recorded two videos in the past couple of days. These are the edited transcripts.

What To Expect If Trump Bombs Iran
https://youtu.be/E8hmyBhOwns

What to expect if Trump bombs Iran?

There are many ways to look at this. The first thing I would say is go watch current interviews of Iranians — before you make a judgment. Go listen to them directly, listen from the horse’s mouth. I think you’ll find that they’re not like “down with America” or “death to Israel” — they’re very calm.

So why are they always so calm? Well, first thing is look at things from their perspective. Iran was in a war with Iraq for eight years from 1980 to 1988 — the war ended 37 years ago. Most older Iranians, have a memory of that. Iraq was given weapons by France and the Soviet Union. They had a very modern, substantial air force, tanks and weapons. So really, Iraq, even though they had a smaller population, technologically was vastly superior to Iran at the time. And after eight years, did they win? No, they never got anywhere.

From an Iranian perspective: around 250,000 Iranians died fighting that war over eight years, with millions more injured. That’s how Iran views the past — superpowers tried to destroy it, and after eight years they failed. Even with the weaker military, Iran survived.

For Iranians to think the U.S. will beat Iran now when it couldn’t 37 years ago — they’re just calm. They’ve been through it before. And Iran is in a much better position today.

How is it better? Iran’s population has doubled from 40 million to 90 million today. Meanwhile, the U.S. has 50% fewer ships than when it deployed 500,000 troops to Iraq in that war, which took six months. Today, getting forces to the region would take nine months to a year.

If Trump bombed Iran tomorrow, Iran would feel compelled to respond by hitting American bases in the Middle East. There are 40 to 50,000 Americans stationed at bases surrounding Iran. When Iran retaliates, America would have to respond back. It would be nice to think both sides would negotiate, but once direct war starts, neither nation backs down. (UPDATE: Thankfully, this hasn’t happened and I hope it doesn’t).

With U.S. troop deployment taking six months to a year, and Europe unwilling to join a losing battle, America would be largely on its own.

Iran sells most of its oil to China and has been getting military components from China for decades. Today, Iran can hit precise targets in Israel from a thousand miles away using Chinese components assembled into rockets. Iran is far more capable now than 40 years ago. While the U.S. and West have improved their military hardware, it’s nothing compared to how much Iran has advanced. The U.S. doesn’t have a meaningful supply of ballistic rockets that can hit targets a thousand miles away.

If Trump attacks Iran, it will mean war between Iran and the United States. Regardless of what you think about Iran’s government, war is war. Iran is mountainous territory that’s had decades since the last war to prepare for the next one, while the U.S. has become militarily weaker.

Those who say “the Iranian regime will be replaced and the Iranian people will rise up and make friends with the U.S.” don’t understand how war works. When one country attacks another, people rally around the flag regardless of who their leaders are. If you’re Iranian and you’ve watched fellow countrymen get killed, why would you make peace with those who attacked you?

What has the United States or Israel ever done for Iran? During the last round of nuclear negotiations, Israel conducted a sneak attack with U.S. help. If you’re Iranian, why would you ever trust anything they say?

Iranians speaking for themselves are clear: “We’ve been through this before. We don’t want war with anyone. We didn’t attack first. But if you attack us, we will defend ourselves to the bitter end, as we did from 1980 to 1988. The choice is yours.”

I hope Trump doesn’t do it. I think he’s not a warmonger and has good instincts, but he’s surrounded by people who want this war and aren’t looking at it rationally.

If you don’t know this history, I suggest you look it up. Listen to Iranians directly explain their perspective. Look at the facts. Can the U.S. beat Iran? No. It would just mean tens of thousands, perhaps hundreds of thousands of Americans dead, and Iran would still have the same borders it had in 1980–1988. So it’s just a question of how hard we want to pound our head against that wall.

Thanks for watching.

Why Trump Bombed Iran: The Red Pill Answer
https://youtu.be/773N2D-b7Cs

To understand Trump’s bombing of Iran, we have to go back a little bit. First, let me say I won’t be surprised if Iran was warned of the attack. I think they already knew there was going to be an attack — they emptied out these facilities. So really, it’s mostly theater. But we need to understand why the theater, what happened in the first and second acts to make sense of this.

Going back — and excuse me that parts of this explanation are going to be crude — the Jews after World War II were given some land in the Middle East. The land was not given to them by the Arabs in the Middle East, or Christians, or anybody else living there. It was given to them by the United States and Europe.

So they get this land and set up a democracy, but this creates a problem. If they give all Arabs equal citizenship, they could eventually take over the democracy — that’s how democracies work — and then the Jews would no longer control the land that they felt was given to them. So they basically had to prevent enough Arabs from getting citizenship so they could vote as they wanted.

In a sense, Israel is making a very long-term play here. They want everything — they want to have total Jewish control of the government of Israel and keep all the Arabs pacified. Of course, they do this through force. The question is going to be: in the long term, will Israel succeed in this, or would it have been better off, if, like the United States and Britain, they basically just gave everybody equal citizenship and let what happens happen? Anyway, this is the path that Israel has taken, especially under Netanyahu.

So they basically don’t give the Arabs full citizenship — the Palestinians and others — and of course, they’re a little bit bitter. Iran funds them because Iran has a beef with the United States going back to 1979 and before. Iran started funding Hezbollah in the north in Lebanon and Hamas in the south in Gaza. These people have their own agendas that have nothing to do with Iran, but it works out for Iran’s power projection in the Middle East, because all countries try to project power.

One thing I will say is don’t fall into this idea that Iran is some special evil terrorist organization. All nations try to project power if they can, and they do it by funding what they call freedom fighters and everybody else calls terrorists. One country’s freedom fighters are another country’s terrorists.

So Israel has this problem where they’re trying to pacify all the Arabs and Palestinians around them, while Iran is funding Palestinians in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon. Israel’s been trying to deal with them, trying to pacify them. It also wants the United States to hit Iran because Iran is the source of the money.

From Israel’s point of view, if it can do regime change in Iran — if it can make Iran weak enough — then no money will go to Hezbollah and Hamas, and then they can control and pacify the Palestinians and keep control of Israel for the Jews while still calling it a democracy. One way they do that is they have 20% of Arabs in Israel as citizens, so they can say, “Look at these guys, we’re a democracy.”

What’s happened is that Israel has been running out of money — this is just my personal theory — and that’s why Hamas was able to attack. So Israel has now gone this really strong-armed route of “we’re going to eliminate Hamas,” but I don’t think they can. Same thing with Hezbollah — they did weaken Hezbollah, but they did it using techniques that are really beyond the pale.

Now they have Hamas weakened, they have Hezbollah weakened. All they need to do is get Iran weakened, and that’s why they’ve pushed so hard for Trump to do it. They’re doing it under the excuse that Iran is building a nuclear bomb, which in my opinion they are not doing. Or if they are doing it, they already have one. Either they have the bomb or they don’t want the bomb — it doesn’t really make a difference because they’re never going to use it. Israel has 60 to 200 nuclear weapons, many on submarines, so whatever Iran does, the Israeli submarine can just wait and then obliterate Iran afterwards. It’s just not going to happen.

So that’s the pretext, but what Israel is really looking to do is weaken Iran. The United States wants that too, ever since 1979. There’s a whole long bunch of complex geopolitics around that, but I just want to explain that this bombing is not really the U.S. declaring war against Iran. I doubt any Iranian was killed — they all knew it was going to happen and cleared out. This has sort of happened before.

I think I better just leave it there, but I want to explain that this is really what it’s about: the U.S. trying to weaken Iran, both for its own interests and for Israel’s interests, so that it can reassert U.S.-Israeli power in the region. I don’t think it’s going to work.

Israel’s long-term calculus is that Iran is creating Hezbollah and Hamas — get rid of Iran, then they will wither up and die away, and their long-term plan of Jews controlling Israel wins. I believe that plan from the start is flawed and just won’t work long term.

Take Hamas, take Hezbollah, take many of the Arabs and Palestinians in the area. It doesn’t matter whether you believe they’re genetically Islamic and want death to all Jews — which I don’t believe — or whether you believe they’re justified in their feelings of hating Israel. It does not matter. That is the thing driving things, so you can’t fix that. Many other people have said this — I’m not the first one.

Even if the Iranian regime fell and democracy took over Iran tomorrow, it would not change anything in the region. Things would be shuffled around, but Israel would be back to the same problem. It displaced people from the area 70 years ago, and all their progeny, and then other Arabs that have beefs with their own countries in Egypt or Saudi Arabia or wherever — they’re not going away. They’re just not going away.

This is not going to work because even if the plan worked like what they’re trying to do, I just can’t see it working. Well, I think it was working until maybe 5 or 10 years ago — there was a period of time where it was working — but I fundamentally just don’t think long term it’s going to work.

Many of these geopolitical struggles happen over decades. This isn’t something that’s going to be resolved in a year or a month or with this little attack or that little attack. These are very long-term things.

I feel Israel has miscalculated — they’re not going to succeed. I believe most smart Israelis who understand this the way I’m explaining have already left Israel. Israel is going to end up a theocracy itself — they’re going to become more Iranian than the Iranians. That’s where I see things going. I think that’s where most educated Jews see things going.

We’ll see. I don’t have any answers, but that’s what I think is going to happen — that Israel will become a failed state because they’ve tried to execute a strategy that is just not going to work. The core flaw in their strategy is that Iran is the root of all their problems, but Iran is not the root of all Israel’s problems. Israel is the root of Israel’s problems.