Yes, I'm not saying the U.S. is particularly saintly ;) Cuba isn't that close--to make your point.

The fact to me, however, Real Politik, is Russia doesn't have the power, or what Mexico needs, to take it under its wing.

The U.S. does have the power and what Ukraine needs to take Ukraine under its wing. BUT, it is not. I understand why Russia wants Ukraine, always have, but wanting and doing aren't the same thing. Just like the U.S. wanting a favorable gov't in Cuba isn't enough ;)

The U.S. doesn't have Cuba and Russia won't end up with Ukraine.

Not because Russia couldn't get Ukraine from the U.S. It could, because most Americans, and especially Trump, don't see why Ukraine is worth fighting for. That is how the tide seems to have shifted.

My argument from the beginning is that, when the rubber meets the road, the U.S. (and Europe) can't allow Russia to take Ukraine. Soft power is difficult without hard power. If Europe thought the U.S. couldn't subdue Russia it would have caved to Russian demands in the beginning (which many Europeans did want--but not enough).

Like Putin, they too cannot back down. Yes, Russia has a proximity advantage. I just don't believe it will be enough against all the other ways the U.S. and Europe and bleeding it using a multitude of methods.

Also, I believe Ukraine is under-estimated, has been from the beginning.

Anyway, that's my 2-cents!