You're right, it could work, in a mechanical sense; that is, if everyone used cheap oil as intended--to bring an end to the war. The point I tried to make in my piece, what I called the pareto phenomena, is that people hoard for status. They create hierarchies and set rules so everyone in that group can become more secure and powerful than the others they compete with.

When Sri Lank ran out of oil the world didn't rush some to its shores. When Putin massed tanks on Ukraine's border the U.S. didn't hold day long meetings to figure out what Russia wanted. (I believe they wanted more money for their oil and a lifting of sanctions).

Or let me put it another way, Russia isn't attacking Ukraine because of the price of oil. It's the very reason I, and most others, believed they wouldn't attack. They were sitting pretty. Why go to war when you're about to exploit your reserves in Siberia? When Nord stream II is about to go online?